It is said that brain burning animation"ID:INVADED"has the shadow of minority report in the film, so donglingjun brushed the film"minority report". After reading it, I thought of a topic. As a prediction system,"later knowledge"is more reliable than"prophet"?
In a few words, understand the setting of the two works
ID:INVADED. In the future, the organization"warehouse"for investigating criminal events will have a"image woman"system. This system can detect killing intention and create a deep psychological world"well"according to killing intention. Detectives can enter the"well"to collect clues for reasoning, so as to help solve all kinds of suspicious homicide cases and bring the criminals to justice.
Minority report. In the future, the crime prevention organization has a prophet prediction system. The core of this system is the super ability to perceive the future -"prophets", who can detect human criminal attempts. When a criminal commits a crime, the police in the organization can arrest the criminal in advance to prevent the occurrence of criminal cases, and the criminal will be sentenced accordingly.
Looking at the description, we will find that the system of minority report looks simpler and more effective. It is a single-layer system. Without the complicated brain burning reasoning of detectives in ID:INVADED, we only need to look at the images of the future crime scene in the stream of consciousness to find the criminals and prevent them from happening.
The prophet system is unreliable
However, there are bugs in this simple and easy prophet prediction system. The future pictures predicted by the three prophets are sometimes different, and their predictions are different. Fortunately, the system is composed of three prophets. The minority can obey the majority and decide on this principle. The minority obeys the majority, which is the origin of the name of the minority report.
Once little brother Tang was predicted to be a criminal by the system. He happened to find the voting logic behind the prophet system. He felt that there was a problem of probability. If the prediction of a few people was the correct future, he would be wronged. Is it possible? He went to investigate. Sure enough, a prophet predicted that he had not committed a crime and finally cleared his grievances. The truth came to light.
Fortunately, the number of prophets set is odd. If the number of prophets is even, it will be very embarrassing. Criminals can be like Schrodinger's cat. It's better to put a hundred wrong than to wrong one. The minority report finally overturned the whole prophet system through a counterexample. The prophet system is unreliable, so there is a bug in this conviction.
So why isn't the prophet system reliable?If there is only one prophet, isn't there no logical problem above? No, how to prove that the prophet's prediction is 100 million percent correct is a more pitiful problem. See the article recommended at the end for details. In a system that requires 100% correctness,"prophet"cannot exist.
Is the hindsight system reliable?
The prophet system of crime prevention is not reliable, so what about the post knowledge system of cracking crime in ID:INVADED? The whole play of"ID:INVADED"seems reliable. On reflection, however, this system is no more reliable than the prophet system. Detectives have to reason in the murderous world, and then catch prisoners accordingly. Building a killing world and reasoning about the clues in it is a two-level system driven by two links. The single-layer system is unreliable, and the double-layer system is even more unreliable. Mistakes can occur in the killing world, and the detective's reasoning will be more subjective and test the detective's ability.
Are unreliable systems, but the outcomes are different.
In the minority report, the prophet system was disbanded, but the ID:INVADED is different. After catching the big boss, the super man"Wang Xiang woman"lost her temper and chose to continue to act as a"tool man". This later known crime cracking system will always exist. Jiaailiu will continue to be abused.
Whether errors are allowed or not is the crutch of the problem. Similarly, unreliable systems have a very different fate, just because their application scenarios are different. Crime prevention, systematic positioning of criminals, if it is an unjust case, it will die for a lifetime. For such errors, editors prefer zero tolerance and absolutely no errors are allowed. However, ID:INVADED is only an auxiliary system. Whether a suspect is convicted or not has nothing to do with the system. This is why they have different destinies.
At this moment, the work of PSYCHO-PASS emerges again. The"systematic prediction error"in this work is recognized by the screenwriters that it can exist, and because of the existence of the error, there is a story in the future world.
Conclusion: whether a prediction system is reliable or not is not important. What matters is the method of using it and the attitude towards it.
Recommended reading: The Promised Neverland brief comment: Russell's Turkey problem changed into an animation opening
Chatting about ID:INVADED and minority report, is"knowing later"more reliable than"prophet"?
It is the same as catching suspects. Why do we say ID:INVADED is the past time and minority report the future time